Illinois Football: Positional Rankings and the Path Forward

A comprehensive breakdown of player performance, key needs, and how the Illini stack up in the Big Ten.

As the college football season winds down, I wanted to take a closer look at Illinois football by evaluating each positional group and comparing the players to their Big Ten counterparts. This analysis serves as a barometer to gauge how Illinois has risen from the bottom of the conference to a middle-tier program and identify areas that may need attention in the offseason to continue building momentum.

This analysis does have its limitations. There’s no single, all-encompassing statistic that perfectly captures player performance. To tackle this, I’ve chosen to use Pro Football Focus (PFF) offensive and defensive grades for each player. These grades allow us to see how players rank among their Big Ten peers at the same position, provided they’ve played enough meaningful snaps to qualify for the sample size. This approach highlights each player's percentile rank within the conference at their position.

PFF grades, while insightful, are not without flaws. The grades are determined by analysts who review every player on every play using All-22 film. This allows them to assess the entire field and score players on a scale of -2 to +2 in 0.5 increments for each play. Because of this detailed grading system, PFF tends to emphasize consistency over explosiveness. For example, a quarterback might throw three touchdowns with no interceptions, but on review, the All-22 film could reveal missed opportunities, bad throws salvaged by receivers, or a couple passes that were bad throws and should have been intercepted. PFF’s methodology delves into these granular details, providing a more nuanced picture of player performance than counting stats or highlight plays. While the grades are subject to disagreement, I trust them as a valuable tool since I’m not personally reviewing every snap and grading players at the same level of detail.

However, it’s important to acknowledge PFF’s limitations, especially when comparing players across teams. First, the grades are not adjusted for the quality of the opponent. For example, a successful block against a Michigan defensive lineman isn’t valued more than one against a Purdue lineman. Teams with softer schedules are likely to grade higher than those facing tougher competition. Additionally, PFF analysts don’t always know a player’s specific assignment on a play. A perceived mistake could actually reflect a player doing exactly what their coaches instructed.

Lastly, grades—and many stats in general—don’t always fully reflect a player’s talent. Coaching decisions play a role in player performance. If a coach fails to maximize a player’s strengths or frequently asks them to perform tasks they struggle with, the player’s grades may suffer. Conversely, a player could excel under different circumstances better suited to their abilities.

With that context in mind, let’s dive into the positional analysis, starting with the quarterback room, which also contains a visual explainer to show how each chart will be structured moving forward.

Each slide in this presentation focuses on a different positional group. Within each group, you’ll find a card for every player. These cards display the player’s season-long PFF offensive or defensive grade, their rank among other players at their position within the Big Ten, and their percentile rank. To make it easier to interpret, the percentile rank is color-coded to visually represent their standing compared to other conference players at that position. The color key is provided on the right side of the slide:

• Blue: The crème de la crème.

• Green: Above average.

• Yellow: Average Big Ten player.

• Orange: Below average.

• Red: Bottom of the conference.

Luke Altmyer has been a key reason why Illinois is bowl eligible this season. He delivered strong performances in the first four games and against Purdue, showcasing his potential as a top-five Big Ten quarterback early on. However, he has struggled against tougher opponents like Penn State, Michigan, Oregon, and Minnesota. Several factors have contributed to these challenges.

Ball security has been a recurring issue, and improving his ability to protect the football will be crucial moving forward. Additionally, Illinois’ lack of a consistent run game has forced Altmyer to take on more responsibility with his legs, often becoming the most effective runner on the team. Early in the season, his mobility added significant value, but defenses have since adjusted, focusing on limiting his running ability.

Accuracy has also become a concern, as Altmyer has missed throws he routinely made earlier in the season. On top of that, the offensive line’s pass protection has been inconsistent. Altmyer’s performance often mirrors the effectiveness of the pass blocking—when he has time in the pocket, he can thrive, but when the protection breaks down, so does his play.

Despite these challenges, it’s important to recognize the progress Illinois has made at the quarterback position. Historically, the program has struggled to find competitive quarterbacks in the Big Ten. With Tommy DeVito and now Altmyer, Illinois has elevated its quarterback play to a middle-of-the-pack level within the conference. This improvement is already paying dividends with the recruiting wins of promising talents like Trey Petty, Carson Boyd, and Michael Clayton.

Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin have been standout players for Illinois this season. Bryant, a bigger and more physical receiver, is one of the most complete players in college football. He takes as much pride in a great block as he does in a great catch, making him arguably the best run-blocking wide receiver in the country. His excellent body control also allows him to consistently win contested 50/50 balls. As Luke Altmyer might say, “F*** it, Pat Bryant’s down there somewhere.”

Zakhari Franklin has been equally impressive. He excels at getting open, with crisp route-running and a keen understanding of how to exploit soft spots in zone coverage or gain leverage in man-to-man situations. His reliable hands make him a go-to target in critical moments.

Beyond the top duo, Hank Beatty has shown significant improvement as the season has progressed, while Collin Dixon has flashed potential in limited opportunities. Malik Elzy has logged 110 snaps this season, including 58 in passing situations, but has only managed 3 catches on 5 targets. His impressive touchdown catch vs Eastern Illinois stands out, as does a recent play where he got open but wasn’t seen by Altmyer. However, it’s tough to evaluate players deeper in the positional group given their limited opportunities. It’s also understandable that Altmyer would focus heavily on Bryant and Franklin in passing situations, given their consistent production.

Illinois suffered a significant loss before the season when Cole Rusk, their dynamic passing threat at tight end, went down with an injury. However, Tanner Arkin has stepped up admirably. While he doesn’t bring the same explosiveness in the passing game, he has been effective as an all-around tight end. Arkin has stood out in run blocking and the short passing game, ranking as an above-average Big Ten tight end. His performance also highlighted an interesting nuance in PFF grades: not all offensive grades carry the same weight across positions. For example, Collin Dixon’s 63.4 offensive grade ranks in the 39th percentile and is considered below average among Big Ten wide receivers. Meanwhile, Arkin’s slightly lower 62.7 offensive grade is above average for Big Ten tight ends, as many tight ends in the conference grade is below 60. This reinforces the value of breaking down positional rankings to truly understand how players stack up. Tanner Arkin has been a positive contributor for Illinois.

Carson Goda, a one-year transfer, provides depth at the position. With Rusk sidelined, Goda’s addition has proven valuable. Henry Boyer, on the other hand, projects more as a blocking tight end. While Boyer has been adequate in run blocking, he has struggled in pass protection. His usage reflects this: he’s been on the field for 87 run-blocking snaps compared to just 5 pass-blocking snaps. If Boyer is in the game, it’s likely a running play.

Josh McCray's resurgence has been a significant boost for Illinois this season. After a standout freshman year, injuries hampered his performance over the next two seasons, leading many to question whether he could recapture his initial form. This season, however, McCray has been instrumental in the Illini's success. A notable example is his one-handed catch on a crucial third-and-long against Nebraska, a play that was pivotal in securing the victory. His consistent contributions have positioned him as an above-average Big Ten running back.

Kaden Feagin, brimming with potential, unfortunately had his season cut short due to injury. His absence is felt, as he was emerging as a dynamic force in the backfield. Ca'Lil Valentine has shown flashes of brilliance with his agility and burst in the running game. However, as a true freshman, he requires more time and strength to develop into a reliable pass protector. This season, he has participated in 68 snaps, with only 4 dedicated to pass blocking. Similarly, Aidan Laughery has faced injury challenges throughout his career. Recently, he's displayed increased agility and burst, but like Valentine, his pass-blocking abilities remain a concern.

The performance of Illinois' offensive line this season has been a significant concern. Despite expectations for improvement, the unit has struggled in key areas. In pass blocking, the team's ranking improved slightly from 14th out of 14 Big Ten teams last season to 12th out of 18 teams this season. However, the run-blocking performance declined, dropping from 7th of 14 teams last season to 13th of 18 teams this season.

Last year, the line's issues were attributed to the inexperience of young players and the lack of a reliable right tackle. This season, with more returning experience and the addition of quality transfers, the offensive line was anticipated to be a strength. Unfortunately, they have performed below expectations, ranking near the bottom among Big Ten offensive lines. The run game has been largely ineffective, particularly up the middle, and pass protection remains inadequate.

Adjustments, such as increasing Brandon Henderson's playing time and reducing Zy Crisler's, may offer some improvement. However, the overall development of the offensive line is a critical area that requires attention for the remainder of this season and into the next. Currently, the team lacks any linemen performing above the conference average, underscoring the need for focused development to enhance both pass protection and run-blocking capabilities.

Illinois' defensive line coach, Terrance Jamison, has a proven track record of maximizing the potential of senior nose tackles. Players like Rod Perry, Calvin Avery, Denzel Daxon, and currently TeRah Edwards have all delivered standout performances in their senior seasons under his guidance. Looking ahead, redshirt freshman Jeremiah Warren has shown promise and could be a key contributor for years to come. Additionally, transfer Dennis Briggs Jr. has been a reliable presence on the line.

However, depth remains a concern. Earlier recruiting misses have led to players like Pat Farrell and Alex Bray being thrust into action before they were ready. In response, Illinois has increased playing time for veteran Ezekiel Holmes, who has provided improved consistency. Addressing depth issues by stacking recrutiing classes and development will be crucial for sustaining the defensive line's effectiveness in future seasons.

The performance of Illinois' edge rushers this season has been mixed. Gabe Jacas stands out in several pass-rushing metrics among edge rushers:

• 8th in the Big Ten for pass-rush grade

• 3rd in tackles for loss

• 4th in sacks

• 4th in hurries

However, his overall defensive grade is negatively impacted by lower marks in run defense and coverage. Notably, Jacas has the 9th most snaps in pass coverage among Big Ten edge rushers, a role that may not align with his strengths and could be contributing to his lower grades in that area. As we talked about earlier, player grades can be impacted from being put in positions where they aren’t playing to their strengths.

Seth Coleman's career has been characterized by flashes of brilliance interspersed with periods of inconsistency. True freshman Joe Barna shows promise with his physical attributes but is still in the early stages of development..

The linebacker corps at Illinois has faced significant challenges this season. Dylan Rosiek has been a dependable presence, performing above the Big Ten average. However, his season-ending injury has exposed the team's depth issues and a lack of athleticism at the position.

With Rosiek sidelined, redshirt sophomore Malachi Hood presents a promising option. In his limited 21 snaps this season, Hood has shown potential, suggesting he could step up to fill the void. His increased involvement could provide the athleticism and playmaking ability the unit currently lacks.

Other linebackers have faced their own challenges. Ryan Meed executes the game plan reliably but lacks the athleticism to make impactful plays. James Kreutz has been dealing with a hand injury, which may be affecting his performance, particularly in run defense and tackling—areas where he previously excelled. Additionally, Kenenna Odeluga has struggled to regain form following an injury, limiting his contributions.

Given these circumstances, increasing Hood's playing time could be a strategic move to bolster the linebacker unit for the remainder of the season.

Xavier Scott has been a standout performer for Illinois this season. He ranks fourth among Big Ten cornerbacks in defensive grade, placing him in the 95th percentile—a testament to his exceptional play. Kaleb Patterson has also been reliable and has shown he’s one of the best sure tacklers on the team. Jaheim Clarke has shown potential, indicating promise for future contributions. Terrance Brooks, a transfer from Texas, has been solid in coverage but needs improvement in run defense. Torrie Cox Jr. demonstrates strong man-to-man coverage skills; however, his lack of size can present matchup challenges.

Miles Scott's transition from walk-on wide receiver to starting safety has been remarkable. After a challenging first season in the secondary, he has become a dependable last line of defense, effectively serving as the team's goalie, rim protecting center, or centerfielder. His performance has been instrumental in stabilizing Illinois' pass defense.

Matthew Bailey, now in his third year with the program, has shown flashes of potential, notably with highlight interceptions as a true freshman. However, his inexperience has led to growing pains as he adjusts to a full-time role. Improving his run defense is essential, a need that extends to many Illinois players this season.

A Look To Next Year

The good news for Illinois is that they only have nine seniors, meaning the team will retain a large portion of its roster heading into next season. To illustrate this, I’ve created offensive and defensive potential returner charts. In these charts, seniors are faded to indicate they will be out of eligibility. While transfers can happen, for this exercise, we’ll assume everyone returns.

Quarterback: Luke Altmyer returning for his senior season gives Illinois stability at the most important position. His experience and continued development should make the team competitive.

Running Back: The entire running back room can return, which is promising. If the group can stay healthy and continue to develop, this position looks solid for next season.

Wide Receiver: This position might need a boost. While Collin Dixon, Malik Elzy, Hank Beatty, and Ashton Hollins could form a strong core, it still feels like Illinois needs to add a playmaker through the transfer portal to give Altmyer a dynamic weapon for his senior season.

Tight End: With Cole Rusk potentially returning from injury and Tanner Arkin back for his senior year, this positional group has the potential to be steady and productive.

Offensive Line: While the line will return many players, the key question is whether Illinois can develop the talent effectively. Improvements are critical, and adding a couple of pieces via the transfer portal might be necessary to shore up this unit.

Defensive Line: All three starters are out of eligibility, which leaves a significant void. Jeremiah Warren has shown promise, and the young depth has potential to make a developmental leap next season. However, Illinois will likely need to look to the transfer portal to bolster this unit.

Edge Rusher: Gabe Jacas could declare for the draft, which would create another gap. Regardless of his decision, Illinois will need to add reinforcements through the portal. Joe Barna is an intriguing prospect, but like the defensive line, the players poised to step into starting roles are young, and the depth behind them will also be inexperienced.

Linebacker: Dylan Rosiek’s return provides a solid foundation, and Malachi Hood’s performance in limited snaps has been encouraging. Illinois may aim to bring in a more dynamic player at this position, but if Hood continues to impress with increased playing time, he could emerge as that impact player. This would allow Illinois to prioritize their portal resources on bolstering the defensive line and edge rusher positions.

Cornerback: Xavier Scott is a potential NFL draft candidate, but if he returns, Illinois could bring back its entire defensive backfield. This would be a huge boost, as Scott is an elite talent, with Kaleb Patterson and Jaheim Clarke offering solid Big Ten-caliber support. Terrance Brooks has potential, and Torrie Cox Jr. remains a dependable option in specific matchups. Overall, this group looks strong heading into next season.

Safety: Miles Scott returning provides leadership and consistency, while Matthew Bailey, with a full year of experience, should continue to grow. With the development of depth players, Illinois’ pass defense is shaping up to be a strength next season

Transfer Portal Needs.

To elevate Illinois football's performance next season, strategic acquisitions through the transfer portal are essential. The primary focus should be on strengthening both the offensive and defensive lines, as well as the edge rusher positions. This approach aims to enhance the team's ability to control the line of scrimmage, thereby improving both the running game and run defense. Additionally, bolstering the offensive line will provide better protection for quarterback Luke Altmyer, allowing him to maximize his senior season.

Another critical need is securing an experienced wide receiver who can serve as a reliable target in the passing game. A player with a profile similar to Zakhari Franklin would be ideal, offering Altmyer a dependable option to elevate the aerial attack.

While other areas may require attention, prioritizing improvements in the trenches and adding a go-to wide receiver will address the most pressing needs for Illinois as they prepare for the upcoming season.